COVID19 Country Reports
Video presentation by Douglas Laxton on modeling herd immunity against COVID19.
The Better Policy Project has developed a simple framework for monitoring COVID-related shocks and their implications for the global economy.
The Better Policy Project has developed a useful framework for monitoring COVID-related shocks and their implications for the global economy and macroeconomic policies (monetary, fiscal and macroprudential). Global Policy Coordination has been inadequate for dealing with the risks during the current pandemic and sadly uncooperative behavior fueled partly by misinformation lends support to very pessimistic views about how the world will manage global issues. The potential risks of mismanaging future pandemics and other global issues such as climate change are enormous. However, in a world that incurs a higher frequency of nasty demand and supply-side shocks, successful implementation of good policies could help the world cope better as well as avert more negative scenarios such as a severe financial crisis.
But implementation of better polices based on the latest scientific evidence requires good analytics. And good analytics requires good data. The data need to be combined and organized in a way that provides useful information to decision makers. The hope is that better data and more informed individuals will result in more successful cooperation in protecting the planet and helping to safeguard humanity.
The stringency of government measures to contain the virus are very costly in terms of restricting economic activity. We use Oxford's measure of government stringency and Google measures of workplace, retail and recreation mobility. As each country immunizes the vulnerable share of its population this should take pressure off the healthcare system and allow them to relax the stringency of their measures. Before the Delta variant, vaccines were quite successful in reducing the severity of the disease in the vulnerable population. We estimated that the share of the vulnerable population should be covered when about 30-40% of the population has been immunized. The daily COVID Report for each country provides charts with data on daily vaccination rates, cumulative vaccination rates and estimates of cumulative fully vaccination rates. In some cases, all the data exist for a group of countries, but in others they are only available for a subset of variables. The data (Excel spreadsheets) can also be accessed free by sending a request to the better policy project at email@example.com.
References of the data should be cited as follows:
Kostanyan, A., D. Laxton, S. Mkhatrishvili and M. Tchanturia, “Python and R-Based Monitoring Systems for COVID19-related shocks,” forthcoming National Bank of Georgia Working Paper.
Countries that are leading the vaccination process are likely to provide valuable information that will be helpful for predicting the effects in other countries. Below is an example of using the data from Israel.