Covid 19

Incorporating the Effects of COVID19-related Shocks in Baseline Forecasts and Risk Assessments

Having learned some important lessons from their experiences working through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) central banks have responded very quickly with strong measures to ensure that the financial system is functioning efficiently and to minimize the risks associated with a credit crunch. Central banks have also provided enormous monetary accommodation to support their economies by cutting policy interest rates and employing unconventional monetary policies (QE, forward guidance, etc.). The fiscal authorities in many countries have responded by supporting their health-care systems and incomes of people and businesses that have been directly affected by the pandemic. But, in spite of the roaring stock markets and all the good news about the development of effective vaccines, there is still enormous uncertainty about the future and serious risks facing the global economy. What would be the implications of stronger interactions between the financial system and real economy?

This course will last 4 weeks. Participants will be expected to work full time but will have access to 2 hours of training each working day. The courses are organized to focus on the needs of each central bank. Class sizes are limited to 1-5 participants. There are significant discounts for central banks from low-income countries and for CBs that enroll more than 4 participants through the year.

 

Prerequisites

  • Have at least intermediate knowledge in statistics and macroeconomics.

  • MATLAB 2017a or later versions. IRIS-Toolbox-Master will be provided by instructors.

  • Being an intermediate user of IRIS/Matlab would be an asset but no previous knowledge of it is required as there will be a special mini-course for beginners.

 
 
 

Dates for 2021 - 2022

Duration - 4 Weeks, 2 Hours Per Day

May 2 - 27, 2022

June 1 - 28, 2022

July 4 - 29, 2022

August 1 - 26, 2022

September 1 - 28, 2022

October 3 - 28, 2022

November 1 - 28, 2022

Course Structure

Week 1

Lectures and Some Hands-on Training in IRIS/MATLAB

The course will start with a presentation of a state-of-the art macro model (MAPMOD) that embodies the ideas of endogenous money and credit creation. The training will also briefly review extensions to standard DSGE models that have attempted to include financial frictions and unemployment.

Week 2 - 3

Participants Divide into Working Groups and Work on Problems Assigned

The training will discuss recent papers on the potential macroeconomic effects of Covid19-related shocks. Participants will develop some background analysis and incorporate this analysis using judgment into a baseline and risk assessments using DSGE models and MPMOD.

Week 4

Participants will Present their Baseline Forecast and Risk Assessments

Participants will develop a power point deck that presents their analysis about the current state of the economy, their near-term outlook and what implications it has for their medium-term outlook and risk assessments. 

 

Price

Price for One Person Without any Discounts is €3000

This course will last 4 weeks. Participants will be expected to work full time but will have access to 2 hours of training each working day. The courses are organized to focus on the needs of each central bank. Class sizes are limited to 1-5 participants. There are significant discounts for central banks from low-income countries and for CBs that enroll more than 4 participants through the year.