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Introduction to Bayesian Estimation

This course is organized over 4 days. Participants will have access to 4 hours of training each day. Each day consists of four hours of lectures and hands-on training. At the end of the course participants should be able to estimate a macro model in DYNARE. Participants will also be shown how to create an excel database using either Python or R.

The courses are organized to focus on the needs of each central bank.

Don't worry! We will find a suitable time of the day for you. Participants will be divided into groups by their time zones.


Day 1. Database Management and Bayesian Basics:

  • Constructing and updating historical and near-term forecasting database,

  • Learning ML and Bayesian estimation in Dynare,

  • Distributions for parameters and stochastic processes.

Day 2. Estimating Models with Generated Data:

  • Generate data with very large samples,

  • Constructing posterior distributions with the MH algorithm,

  • Odds ratios.

Day 3. Estimate Small Model of the US economy:

  • Graph and analyze data,

  • Estimation of modes with priors.

Day 4. Estimate Small Model of the US economy:

  • Estimation of modes with priors,

  • Analyze model properties.

 

Prerequisites:

  • ​Have at least intermediate knowledge in statistics and macroeconomics.

  • MATLAB 2020a or later versions. 

  • Being an intermediate user of Dynare/Matlab would be an asset but no previous knowledge of it is required as there will be a special mini-course for beginners.

  • MiKTeX.

Requirements:

  • DYNARE 4.63 or higher.

  • MATLAB 2020a or higher.

The outcomes from the course:

  • DYNARE code with Estimation examples.

  • Certificate of completion.

  • Further assistance (subject to discussion).

Reading Material

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Participants interested in learning more about the details of this course should email us at 

douglaslaxton@thebetterpolicyproject.org  to request access to a series of video presentations. 

Dates

May 9
- May 12

2022

Application Deadline:
May 2

June 27
- June 30

2022

Application Deadline:
June 20

Registration Closed
Registration Open

Times will be discussed separately with the participants to adapt to their time-zones.

Price for 1 Participant

High-Income Countries -- €1000

Middle-Income Countries -- €500

Low-Income Countries -- €250

Countries are classified by income using new "World Bank country classifications by income level: 2020-2021." Find the World Bank tables here.