Mind the Gaps! Financial-Cycle Output Gaps and Monetary-Policy-Relevant Output Gaps

This course is based on using the historical-narrative approach to develop plausible estimates of output gaps that are relevant for assessing conventional monetary policy trade-offs as well as other measures that are useful for measuring lower-frequency financial cycles.

Current version of the course will use IRIS/MATLAB for modeling exercises, but at some point there will also be versions in Dynare/JULIA, which is 100% free open-source software. 

This course will last one month. Participants will be expected to work full time but will have access to 2 hours of training each working day.

 

This course will last 4 weeks. Participants will be expected to work full time but will have access to 2 hours of training each working day. The courses are organized to focus on the needs of each central bank. Class sizes are limited to 1-5 participants. There are significant discounts for central banks from low-income countries and for CBs that enroll more than 4 participants through the year. 

 

Prerequisites

This online course is designed for people working in central banks, ministries of finance and financial institutions. 

  • Have at least intermediate knowledge in statistics and macroeconomics.

  • MATLAB 2017a or later versions. IRIS-Toolbox-Master will be provided by instructors.

  • Being an intermediate user of IRIS/Matlab would be an asset but no previous knowledge of it is required as there will be a special mini-course for beginners.

 
 

Dates for 2021 - 2022

Duration - 4 Weeks, 2 Hours Per Day

May 2 - 27, 2022

June 1 - 28, 2022

July 4 - 29, 2022

August 1 - 26, 2022

September 1 - 28, 2022

October 3 - 28, 2022

November 1 - 28, 2022

 

Course Structure

Stage 1

Hands-on work with US Model (1 day).

Learning-by-doing: The participants will study how to replicate the MPMOD and FCMOD models on the United States in IRIS/MATLAB.

Stage 2

Develop historical narrative for another country (2 days).

The instructors will choose another country for examination.  The participants need to study the country's economic history and be able to share it with instructors.

Stage 3

Develop Historical Estimates and Forecasts for another country (5 days).

The participants will construct MPMOD and FCMOD models in IRIS/MATLAB for the chosen country and explain business and financial cycles.

Stage 4

Prepare Presentation (2 days).

The participants will have 2 days to prepare a presentation based on the results and historical narrative. They will present it on the 3rd day.

Stage 5

Get Feedback and Revise (5 days).

The participants will carry on working with the instructors getting feedback from them. By the end of the 5th day final presentation and first draft of working paper should be ready.

Stage 6

Write Working Paper (10 days).

The participants will have 10 days to finalize the paper. During that period they will be in regular contact with instructors.

By the end of course, final version of paper should be ready to submit for comments at their institutions. 

Price

Price for One Person Without any Discounts is €3000

This course will last 4 weeks. Participants will be expected to work full time but will have access to 2 hours of training each working day. The courses are organized to focus on the needs of each central bank. Class sizes are limited to 1-5 participants. There are significant discounts for central banks from low-income countries and for CBs that enroll more than 4 participants through the year.