David Archer - BIS, Head of Central Banking Studies
Martin Galstyan - Central Bank of Armenia, Governor
Douglas Laxton - Saddle Point Research and The Better Policy Project, Director
Archil Mestvirishvili - National Bank of Georgia, Vice-Governor
Shalva Mkhatrishvili - National Bank of Georgia, Head of Macroeconomics and Statistics Department
José Vicente Romero - Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia), Research Economist
The Better Policy Project will be launching the Global Forecasting School (GFS) and FPAS Mark II Summer School on Wednesday, May 25 at the BPP weekly seminar series. In a nutshell, the GFS trains students to develop scenarios to support policymakers at FPAS Mark II central banks. FPAS Mark II emphasizes the role of uncertainty and nonlinearities in monetary policy deliberations and communications.
The launch will start with a presentation on the evolving US situation and a new way of presenting scenarios to policymakers. David will present the analytical framework and present examples of his recommended Case A and Case B reference scenarios. Hayk and Shalva will do the same followed by a discussion with the audience. We will also poll the audience to understand their views about the probabilities attached to the alternative scenarios.
Mathias Drehmann heads the secretariat for the Markets Committee, which facilitates central bank cooperation and information exchange about central bank operations and financial market functioning. Mathias has been with the BIS for more than a decade, most recently as Head of Emerging Markets. Prior to joining the BIS, he held appointments at the Bank of England and the ECB. Mathias has extensive experience in covering financial markets in advanced economies and EMEs and has a strong research record. His work focuses on financial markets, macro-financial interactions, financial cycles and financial stability more generally. It provided the basis for the countercyclical capital buffer adopted under Basel III. Mathias's work is cited widely and has been published in academic journals such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of Financial Intermediation or the Journal of Banking and Finance. Mathias received a PhD from the University of Bonn and the London School of Economics, as part of the European Doctoral Program for Quantitative Economics.
Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed's weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcasting" forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time. His research interests include macroeconomics, econometrics, and forecasting. He was promoted to senior economist in 2013. He also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's macroblog, which provides commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.
Prior to joining the Atlanta Fed as an economist in 2007, Higgins spent seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. There, he served as a research assistant and economic analyst.
Higgins's work has appeared in the International Journal of Finance & Economics, as well as the Cleveland Fed's Economic Commentary. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economics.
A native of Columbus, Ohio, Higgins earned a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics from Oberlin College.