Global Forecasting School
Martin Galstyan
Robert Ford
Shalva Mkhatrishvili
Tamta Sopromadze
Hayk Kalantaryan
José Romero
Armen Nurbekyan
Asya Kostanyan
Mariami Tchanturia
Sergo Gadelia
Hayk Karapetyan
Anahit Jaloyan
Hamid Faruqee
Haykaz Igityan
Jared Laxton
Ana Nizharadze
Diana Nazaryan
Satenik Gevorgyan
Douglas Laxton
Vahe Avagyan
Narek Ghazaryan
Vazgen Poghosyan
Koko Ohanyan
Tinatin Andghuladze
Ioannis Halikias
Angela Papikyan
Levon Sahakyan
Lia Hambardzumyan
Ani Asoyan
Sopio Mkervalidze
The Global Forecasting School (GFS) provides a very practical training opportunity to learn how to develop analytical frameworks for surveillance systems designed to make sense of a very complex world and to use much more sophisticated nonlinear models to study the policy implications of nonlinearities and uncertainty.
GFS is a Dynamic Learning Environment (DLE) which aims at creating superstars. People at he the GFS have an opportunity to learn from and collaborate with top-notched economists and policymakers. We designed multiple platforms: daily discussions, GFS weekly meetings, seminar series, workshops etc.
DLE isn’t a one-shot game, it’s an ongoing process. The biggest requirement is a commitment to learn and grow constantly, perform as part of the TEAM, follow up-to-the-mark work ethic. Four main principles of DLE are:
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Human capital is the key. It is very important to invest in training and continuous education of people.
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Teamwork, collaboration and networking is a certain path to success.
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Never saythe model says. Nobody should ever expect to get mechanical answers just from models. Models can only be some of many tools used by decisionmakers and economic agents, but they can never give ultimate “correct” answers.
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"I'd rather have Bob Solow than an econometric model, but I'd rather have Bob Solow with an econometric model than without one." (Stanley Fischer)
GFS creates an integrated system to support decision-making under uncertainty. The system includes multiple ingredients: monitoring, data generation, nowcasting, medium and long-term projections and reporting. Our workhorse models include essential non-linear relationships in the economy. Besides, we use multiple satellite models to help understand medium and long-term trends in the economy and structural economic interactions.
GFS created tools and mechanisms for monitoring, analyzing and incorporating high frequency data. We prioritize usage of open-source software in all stages of projection and economic analysis system. The goal is to achieve highest degrees of transparency and cost-effectiveness.
GFS Training and Models
GFS Scenario-Builder Procedures
Monday-Friday
06:00 Lisbon Time
Tuesday
By 21:00 Lisbon Time
Wednesday
15:00 Lisbon Time
Thursday
15:00 Lisbon Time
Friday
21:00 Lisbon Time
Global Forecasting School Daily Meetings
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Submission of Case A and Case B Nowcasts and Narratives
Publication of Nowcasts and Narratives on BPP Website
GFS Presentation
Presentation by Participants
Feedback Friday
Summary Briefing Video of the Week
Central Bank GFS Qualification Levels
Level I
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Prepare scenarios, create polished presentations and policy notes.
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Prepare polished drafts of a summary section of an FPAS Mark II Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
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Start coaching pre-GFS students.
Level III
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GFS Trainer that is responsible for running and organizing the school.
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Produce polished presentations and draft MPRs up to the standard of the RBNZ.
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Mentor and teach lower-level students basic FPAS Mark II Training.
Level V
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Seasoned in both technical and managerial aspects of the previous levels.
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Deep knowledge and expertise in all functional components of FPAS Mark II to a level that he/she Is able to lead an establishment of a fully functional FPAS Mark II framework within a given institution.
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Responsible to oversee GFS standards and implementation issues, develop new features and push the whole system beyond status quo.
Level II
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Work more independently.
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Require much less Tender Loving Care (TLC) preparing presentations and draft MPRs.
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Mentor and teach level 1 students basic FPAS Mark II Training.
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Deeper knowledge of background material covered by FPAS Mark II basic training .
Level IV
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Responsible for managing GFS (system design, resource management and sustainability).
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Invests significant time in coaching and capacity development of the next GFS generation (GFS23).
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Proven track record of applied knowledge in concepts required for lower levels.
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Visionary approach to develop the whole system by pushing it beyond the existing status quo.
Level VI
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Executive managing the GFS program including standards, program design and implementation issues.
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World-class expertise in monetary economics, renowned within policy/academic worlds.
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Should be able to fully design and setup end to end implementation of FPAS mark II or similar frameworks in practically every institution.
GFS Testing Results
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Vahe Avagyan, GFS Level 1
Hayk Karapetyan, GFS Level 1
Haykaz Igityan, GFS Level 1
Ana Nizharadze, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Mariami Tchanturia, GFS Level 1
Giorgi Gigineishvili, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Koko Ohanyan, GFS Level 1
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Hayk Avetisyan, GFS Level 1
Shogher Sanosyan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Lia Hambardzumyan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Hasmik Kartashyan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Angela Papikyan, GFS Level 1
Vazgen Poghosyan, GFS Level 1
Sergo Gadelia, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Shalva Mkhatrishvili, GFS Level 1
Tamta Sopromadze, GFS Level 1
Vahagn Davtyan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Narek Ghazaryan, GFS Level 1
Hayk Kalantaryan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Diana Nazaryan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Ani Asoyan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Svetlana Saghryan, GFS Level 1 Candidate
Quarterly GFS Workshops and Trainings
At the beginning of each quarter - January, April, July and October - we organize hybrid (face-to-face and online) GFS workshops and Advanced Macro Policy Modeling (AMPM) trainings. Participants can choose one of the options below:
AMPM I
Introduction
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AMPM V
Advanced Applied DSGE Economics
AMPM IX
R for Economists
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AMPM II
Introduction to DSGE Economics
AMPM VI
Bayesian Estimation
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AMPM X
Python for Economists
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AMPM III
Semi-Structural Models for Monetary Policy
AMPM VII
Dynare/Julia Applications
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AMPM XI
Semi-Structural Models for Fiscal Policy
AMPM IV
Applied DSGE Economics
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AMPM VIII
Regime-Switching DSGE Models in RISE
AMPM XII
Introduction to Applied DSGE Economics for Fiscal Policy