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Global Forecasting School

The Global Forecasting School (GFS) provides a very practical training opportunity to learn how to develop analytical frameworks for surveillance systems designed to make sense of a very complex world and to use much more sophisticated nonlinear models to study the policy implications of nonlinearities and uncertainty. 

 

GFS is a Dynamic Learning Environment (DLE) which aims at creating superstars. People at he the GFS have an opportunity to learn from and collaborate with top-notched economists and policymakers. We designed multiple platforms: daily discussions, GFS weekly meetings, seminar series, workshops etc.

 

DLE isn’t a one-shot game, it’s an ongoing process. The biggest requirement is a commitment to learn and grow constantly, perform as part of the TEAM, follow up-to-the-mark work ethic. Four main principles of DLE are:

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  • Human capital is the key. It is very important to invest in training and continuous education of people.

  • Teamwork, collaboration and networking is a certain path to success. 

  • Never saythe model says. Nobody should ever expect to get mechanical answers just from models. Models can only be some of many tools used by decisionmakers and economic agents, but they can never give ultimate “correct” answers.

  • "I'd rather have Bob Solow than an econometric model, but I'd rather have Bob Solow with an econometric model than without one." (Stanley Fischer)

GFS creates an integrated system to support decision-making under uncertainty. The system includes multiple ingredients: monitoring, data generation, nowcasting, medium and long-term projections and reporting. Our workhorse models include essential non-linear relationships in the economy. Besides, we use multiple satellite models to help understand medium and long-term trends in the economy and structural economic interactions.

GFS created tools and mechanisms for monitoring, analyzing and incorporating high frequency data. We prioritize usage of open-source software in all stages of projection and economic analysis system. The goal is to achieve highest degrees of transparency and cost-effectiveness.

GFS Training and Models

Coding Station
Presentation
Image by JJ Ying

GFS Scenario-Builder Procedures

Monday-Friday
06:00 Lisbon Time

Tuesday
By 21:00 Lisbon Time

Wednesday
15:00 Lisbon Time

Thursday
15:00 Lisbon Time

Friday
21:00 Lisbon Time

Global Forecasting School Daily Meetings

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Submission of Case A and Case B Nowcasts and Narratives 

Publication of Nowcasts and Narratives on BPP Website

GFS Presentation

Presentation by Participants

Feedback Friday

Summary Briefing Video of the Week

Central Bank GFS Qualification Levels

 

Level I

  • Prepare scenarios, create polished presentations and policy notes.

  • Prepare polished drafts of a summary section of an FPAS Mark II Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

  • Start coaching pre-GFS students.

 

Level III

  • GFS Trainer that is responsible for running and organizing the school.

  • Produce polished presentations and draft MPRs up to the standard of the RBNZ.

  • Mentor and teach lower-level students basic FPAS Mark II Training.

 

Level V

  • Seasoned in both technical and managerial aspects of the previous levels.

  • Deep knowledge and expertise in all functional components of FPAS Mark II to a level that he/she Is able to lead an establishment of a fully functional FPAS Mark II framework within a given institution.

  • Responsible to oversee GFS standards and implementation issues, develop new features and push the whole system beyond status quo.

 

Level II

  • Work more independently.

  • Require much less Tender Loving Care (TLC) preparing presentations and draft MPRs.

  • Mentor and teach level 1 students basic FPAS Mark II Training.

  • Deeper knowledge of background material covered by FPAS Mark II basic training .

 

Level IV

  • Responsible for managing GFS (system design, resource management and sustainability).

  • Invests significant time in coaching and capacity development of the next GFS generation (GFS23).

  • Proven track record of applied knowledge in concepts required for lower levels.

  • Visionary approach to develop the whole system by pushing it beyond the existing status quo.

 

Level VI

  • Executive managing the GFS program including standards, program design and implementation issues.

  • World-class expertise in monetary economics, renowned within policy/academic worlds.

  • Should be able to fully design and setup end to end implementation of FPAS mark II or similar frameworks in practically every institution.

Quarterly GFS Workshops and Trainings

At the beginning of each quarter - January, April, July and October - we organize hybrid (face-to-face and online) GFS workshops and Advanced Macro Policy Modeling (AMPM) trainings. Participants can choose one of the options below:

AMPM I

Introduction

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AMPM V

Advanced Applied DSGE Economics

AMPM IX

R for Economists

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AMPM II

Introduction to DSGE Economics

AMPM VI

Bayesian Estimation

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AMPM X

Python for Economists

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AMPM III

Semi-Structural Models for Monetary Policy

AMPM VII

Dynare/Julia Applications

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AMPM XI

Semi-Structural Models for Fiscal Policy

AMPM IV

Applied DSGE Economics

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AMPM VIII

Regime-Switching DSGE Models in RISE

AMPM XII

Introduction to Applied DSGE Economics for Fiscal Policy

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