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Prudent Risk Management Approach to Monetary Policy Launch of FPAS MARK II

Keynote Speakers


Lawrence Summers

Harvard University,

President Emeritus


Ekaterine Mikabadze

National Bank of Georgia,



Kyoungsoo Yoon

Bank of Korea,

Advisor to Governor


Vache Gabrielyan



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Davit Nahapetyan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Board Member


Charles Goodhart


Professor Emeritus

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Robert Ford


Former Deputy Director


Robert Tetlow

Federal Reserve Board,

Senior Advisor


Central Bank of Armenia,

Board Member

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Vahe Avagyan

Central Bank of Armenia,


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Athanasios Orphanides




Douglas Laxton

The Better Policy Project,


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Hayk Avetisyan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Head of Macro Directorate

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Levon Sahakyan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Board Member


Aleksander Hycnar

Sciences Po Paris,


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Joeri Schasfoort

Money & Macro,

Founder & Show Host


Armen Nurbekyan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Deputy Governor


Donald Coletti

Bank of Canada,

Advisor to the Governor

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Narek Ghazaryan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Board Member


Yeva Grigoryan

Central Bank of Armenia,

PR Specialist

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Martin Galstyan

Central Bank of Armenia,



Shalva Mkhatrishvili

National Bank of Georgia,

Head of MPD

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Franz Hamann

Banco de la Republica,

Director of Macro Models

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Artak Manukyan

Central Bank of Armenia,

Board Member

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Central Bank of Armenia,

People and culture

The Central Bank of Armenia will be launching the FPAS Mark II framework in January 2024. To support the launch of the new prudent risk management policy framework, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) and The Better Policy Project (BPP) will be hosting a high-level symposium covering the following topics:


  • FPAS Mark II evaluation and challenges by Charles Goodhart and Lawrence Summers

  • Panel discussions with central bank Governors and Deputy Governors

  • Presentations by CBA staff on key elements of the FPAS Mark II framework (including organizational structure, communications and transparency framework, human capital approach, etc.)

  • Contributions from CBA and BPP senior advisors Robert Ford, Hamid Faruqee, Ioannis Halikias, and others.


The key elements of the FPAS Mark II framework are summarized in the attached introduction to the forthcoming book covering the theory and practice of FPAS Mark II.


The CBMM Workshops were started at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in 1998 after they had developed a model-based foreword-looking forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support their flexible inflation targeting regime. Since 1998, every year it has moved from central bank to central bank with the purpose of connecting central bank modeling efforts with research in academia. 


The title of the first workshop was “Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty”.  It was the time of the inflation-targeting pioneers.  In addition, at the beginning of 1990s, the Bank of Canada developed solution methods for solving a class of useful nonlinear models with plausible representations of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The methods were incorporated in the Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The RBNZ, with help from the Canadians, then implemented this approach to support  its novel Inflation Targeting regime, launching what it is known today as the FPAS. Publicly-disclosed forecasts used to inform and explain decisions taken in pursuit of clear policy targets, became the gold standard for monetary policy.

With the development of the FPAS Mark II—which evolves the FPAS Mark I framework to better deal with uncertainties and nonlinearities—we have taken the opportunity to revisit the format of these conferences. From 2023 the CBMMW will be held on a quarterly basis, at the end of the second week of the first month of each quarter, alternating between Dilijan, Armenia and Carcavelos, Portugal. Given the successful experience of organizing the CBMMW during the pandemic, we emphasize that the workshops will continue to be hybrid (participants can join either online or in-person). We would of course welcome you to join us in Dilijan in January and July or in Carcavelos in April and October.

The inaugural quarterly conference in January, as well as later conferences in April and October, will feature a series of invited and keynote presentations. The flagship annual conference in July will feature a combination of both submitted papers and invited/keynote presentations. The advantages of this approach are that we can spend much more time on each paper in the quarterly workshops that involve invited papers. The idea is to choose the invited papers partly from the pool of papers that have been submitted at the annual flagship workshop, which over the past few years, has averaged somewhere between 60-100 presentations. We will continue to improve the paper selection process by creating a better approach for determining the scientific committee. The other advantage is that researchers will have more opportunity to present their work, as their research progresses into the final publication stage.


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Media Resources

Media Resources
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Invitation for Participation: We are thrilled to invite media professionals to actively participate in our upcoming event.

Media Participation Form: To facilitate your involvement, we request that you complete the Media Participation Form. 

Opportunity to Engage with Speakers: As a valued part of our media contingent, you will have the privilege of submitting questions to our keynote speakers and panelists. This opportunity is extended to all media participants, recognizing the importance of your role in shaping public discourse.

Additional Information: For more information about the event, the submission process, or any other queries, please contact us at

Yeva Grigoryan

PR Specialist

Central Bank of Armenia

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The forthcoming book is a detailed and professional exploration of the advanced applications of DynareJulia in economic modeling. This book marks a pivotal shift in economic policy analysis, transitioning from traditional tools to the more sophisticated and accessible DynareJulia. 

Additionally, the book discusses the integral role of DynareJulia in the Risk Management approach to monetary policy within the FPAS Mark II framework. A key feature is the Central Bank of Armenia's adoption of this approach, with the bank integrating DynareJulia into its monetary policy framework, including its quarterly projection model and satellite models.

The book is slated for its inaugural presentation at an upcoming workshop. This presentation is designed to offer a thorough overview of the book's content, highlighting its practical applications in economic modeling and policy analysis, and underscoring the advancements in the field that DynareJulia brings. 

The symposium will be followed by 1-week-long DynareJulia workshop, from January 15 to 19, 2024. 

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