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Working Papers

WORKING PAPER N2026-07      |     November 2026

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AI, Recessions and Labour-Market Resilience: 

Unemployment Insurance, Lifelong Learning and the Capacity to Compete

Douglas Laxton, Asya Kostanyan, Jared Laxton, Salome Mkervalidze, Sopio Mkervalidze, Vazgen Poghosyan

WORKING PAPER N2026-07      |     November 2026

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AI Productivity, Wealth Accumulation and Concentration and Real Interest Rates

Technical Version

Douglas Laxton, Asya Kostanyan, Jared Laxton, Salome Mkervalidze, Sopio Mkervalidze, Vazgen Poghosyan

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WORKING PAPER N2026-06      |     October 2026

AI Productivity, Wealth Accumulation and Concentration and Real Interest Rates

Exploring the range of possibilities for macroeconomic policy

Douglas Laxton, Asya Kostanyan, Jared Laxton, Salome Mkervalidze, Sopio Mkervalidze

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WORKING PAPER N2026-05      |     October 2026

Developing a State-of-the-Art Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework Based on Non-Traded Sticky-Price Inflation

Methodology, Economic Motivation, Historical Reconstruction, and Policy Interpretation

Varduhi Yeghikyan, Douglas Laxton, Henrik Arshakyan, Astghik Jalatyan, Salome Mkervalidze, Sopio Mkervalidze

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WORKING PAPER N2026-04      |     October 2026

Transformative AI and the Macroeconomy

From Technological Scenarios to a Modeling and Policy Agenda

Douglas Laxton, Asya Kostanyan, Jared Laxton, Salome Mkervalidze, Sopio Mkervalidze, Vazgen Poghosyan, Anna Aghajanyan

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WORKING PAPER N2026-03      |     September 2026

Mission Creep in Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling

Principles for Fiscal Analysis in a QPM Framework

Douglas Laxton, Asya Kostanyan, Jared Laxton, Shady Fakhoury

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Beyond the Dot Plot: Toward Scenario-Based Monetary Policy

WORKING PAPER N2026-02      |     August 2026

Douglas Laxton, Hayk Avetisyan, Sopio Mkervalidze, Vazgen Poghosyan 

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WORKING PAPER N2026-03      |     July 2026

Communicating Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty

A Prudent Risk Management Interpretation for the UK Economy

Shant Arzoumanian, Jared Laxton, Sopio Mkervalidze

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